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No Barchart inputs."},"chronicle":{"name":"Archived StocksRecap NYSE tables","url":"https://ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/00/02/83/15/06242/12-18-2021.pdf","first":"2021-12-13","last":"2021-12-17","note":"Five daily NYSE StocksRecap tables published by the Citrus County Chronicle, 14\u201318 December 2021. This is a different breadth universe from WSJ; calculated as an independent segment, never combined with WSJ counts or denominators. The original indicator publisher\u2019s precise vendor remains 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max loss","3M drawdown"],"timing":"A 252-session closing high arms a setup; NL > NH within +/-7 sessions of that high; current four-of-five breadth and down-close tests; NH below 1.5% on any of the latest five sessions on/after the high; 14-session expiry after the high; one event per high cycle. No lookahead. Added experimental condition: Nasdaq leveraged ETF AUM spread >=4.5 on at least one of the current and previous four SPX trading sessions. All six conditions are checked before consuming the one-warning-per-high allowance. Experimental warnings must also be at least three calendar months apart across all source segments. A fresh high cannot reset that cooldown. Blocked matches do not extend it or consume a high cycle.","replication_status":"Experimental reconstruction with an added Nasdaq AUM spread filter and a three-calendar-month cooldown, separate from the published study conditions.","candidate_parameters":{"high_sessions":252,"setup_radius":7,"confirmation_window":5,"minimum_weak_and_down":4,"nh_percent_threshold":1.5,"expiry_sessions_from_high":14,"cooldown_calendar_months":3},"current_breadth_date":"2026-10-20","archive_error":null,"reference_source":"https://bluekurtic.com/mi-shorts/sp-500-triggers-titanic-warning-signal-dont-fall-for-the-recency-bias/","matched_reference_dates":["2018-02-02","2018-09-27","2021-12-17","2025-02-27","2026-10-13"],"unvalidated_reference_dates":["2020-02-27","2023-08-17","2024-12-18"],"coverage_note":"The long archive ends 2020-02-10. Later history contains five recovered December 2021 StocksRecap tables, sparse recovered WSJ windows and daily WSJ observations from October 2026. Every source segment is calculated independently; different vendor counts and denominators are never combined. Missing periods can conceal earlier firings; events are the first provable qualifying date from available data per high cycle.","nasdaq_filter":{"threshold":4.5,"lookback_sessions":5,"includes_signal_session":true,"formula":"(TQQQ AUM + QLD AUM) / (SQQQ AUM + QID AUM)","chart":"nasdaq100-leveraged-spread.html","data":"nasdaq100-leveraged-spread-data.json","first_date":"2010-02-09","as_of":"2026-10-20","updated_utc":"2026-10-21T16:48:04.647274+00:00","sha256":"f555fff0eece3d22bdedc8dd1bca5e480dd39dbe5e4d13260772df197ada4065","missing_policy":"Unknown unless at least one known observation in the five-session window is >= 4.5; no forward fill or future observations."},"cooldown":{"calendar_months":3,"applies_to":"experimental warnings across all source segments","last_warning_date":"2026-10-13","next_eligible_date":"2027-01-13","active":true,"policy":"The first fully qualifying session on or after the three-month anniversary may fire; weekends and holidays do not create signals. Blocked matches do not restart the clock or consume a high cycle. One warning per high cycle also remains in force."},"all_signals_description":"Daily matches of all six market conditions, before cooldown and one-per-high suppression; emitted warnings are in episodes.","filtered_reference_dates":["2018-02-02","2018-09-27","2021-12-17","2025-02-27","2026-10-13"]},"rows":[{"date":"2006-01-03","spx":1268.800048828125,"source_id":"unicorn","nh":196.0,"nl":48.0,"total":3473.0,"adv":2538.0,"dec":828.0,"unc":107.0,"weak":false,"nh_percent":5.643535847970055,"threshold_bound":null,"threshold_pass":false,"down":false,"high":false,"high_date":"2005-12-14","high_age":12,"weak5":3,"weak5_known":3,"weak5_unknown":0,"down5":3,"setup_date":"2005-12-19","threshold_date":"2005-12-28","threshold_percent":1.4522218995062446,"threshold_upper_bound":null,"conditions":[true,true,false,false,true,null],"base_signal":false,"nasdaq_spread":null,"nasdaq_spread_max5":null,"nasdaq_spread_max5_date":null,"nasdaq_spread_known5":0,"nasdaq_spread_unknown5":5,"nasdaq_spread_pass":null,"signal":false,"new_signal":false,"valid":true,"source_name":"Archived NYSE all-issues daily 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on 2019-08-20."},"wsj":{"name":"WSJ / Dow Jones NYSE Market Diary","url":"https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary","note":"Sparse recovered historical observations plus daily collection. Original printed tables, Dow Jones Newswires syndication, and explicitly credited WSJ tables reproduced by MrTopStep. No Barchart inputs."},"chronicle":{"name":"Archived StocksRecap NYSE tables","url":"https://ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/00/02/83/15/06242/12-18-2021.pdf","first":"2021-12-13","last":"2021-12-17","note":"Five daily NYSE StocksRecap tables published by the Citrus County Chronicle, 14\u201318 December 2021. This is a different breadth universe from WSJ; calculated as an independent segment, never combined with WSJ counts or denominators. The original indicator publisher\u2019s precise vendor remains unconfirmed."}},"wsj_rows":{"2025-02-20":{"nh":55,"nl":48,"total":2852,"adv":1187,"dec":1563,"unc":102,"provenance":["https://www.itiger.com/news/2513246508"],"note":"Day-ago column in dated 21 February Dow Jones final diary; prior NYSE session is 20 February."},"2025-02-21":{"nh":54,"nl":73,"total":2849,"adv":713,"dec":2062,"unc":74,"provenance":["https://www.itiger.com/news/2513246508"],"note":"Dow Jones final market diary, 21 February 2025 18:00 ET."},"2025-02-24":{"nh":43,"nl":87,"total":2837,"adv":1252,"dec":1510,"unc":75,"provenance":["https://forex-station.com/post1295560411.html"],"note":"WSJ 25 February 2025, printed B4, market session 24 February. Original PDF publicly linked at source."},"2025-02-25":{"nh":54,"nl":90,"total":2846,"adv":1634,"dec":1159,"unc":53,"provenance":["https://forex-station.com/post1295560666.html"],"note":"WSJ 26 February 2025, printed B6, market session 25 February. 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Unchanged and total issues not reported; retained as unknown."},"2026-10-12":{"nh":53,"nl":166,"total":null,"adv":null,"dec":null,"unc":null,"provenance":["https://www.theopeningprint.com/p/opening-print-october-13-2026"],"note":"Explicit 12 October WSJ diary table reproduced by MrTopStep. Total issues not reported; retained as unknown."},"2026-10-15":{"date":"2026-10-15","nh":68,"nl":142,"adv":2076,"dec":672,"unc":45,"total":2793,"observed_utc":"2026-10-16T20:28:44.728113+00:00","source_sha256":"0e05fb5001478738b19a99cf525393ecef7bdc67ea74cbd5caf637f647acf6da","provenance":["https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary"]},"2026-10-16":{"date":"2026-10-16","nh":63,"nl":102,"adv":1152,"dec":1569,"unc":59,"total":2780,"observed_utc":"2026-10-19T16:53:02.719154+00:00","source_sha256":"ede807f337fd749249e21d61047cd73028b0c76e4c1a8efb81c41bd8c7faa842","provenance":["https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary"]},"2026-10-19":{"date":"2026-10-19","nh":35,"nl":157,"adv":961,"dec":1751,"unc":81,"total":2793,"observed_utc":"2026-10-20T16:53:01.915169+00:00","source_sha256":"86f0e27eb6520511a0843e15344d561d23751cd71b1c0e4867bd72acee9ae1f3","provenance":["https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary"]},"2026-10-20":{"date":"2026-10-20","nh":62,"nl":116,"adv":1856,"dec":848,"unc":79,"total":2783,"observed_utc":"2026-10-21T16:53:03.183446+00:00","source_sha256":"b9e7f801262921ea9b2148b901180858bfa994e48869388a30f674f0597fc826","provenance":["https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/marketsdiary"]}},"additional_rows":{"chronicle":{"2021-12-13":{"nh":74,"nl":82,"adv":691,"dec":1791,"unc":null,"total":null,"provenance":["https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/chronicleonline.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/3/8f/38f15120-5c97-11ec-aa36-77f2c661a838/61b81f6c1492d.pdf.pdf"],"note":"Original StocksRecap NYSE column, newspaper edition 2021-12-14, preceding market session 2021-12-13, cross-checked against its SPX close. 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Unchanged issues and exact total are not printed. No WSJ data used in this segment."},"2021-12-16":{"nh":98,"nl":58,"adv":1143,"dec":1331,"unc":null,"total":null,"provenance":["https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/chronicleonline.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/b3/7b34f4c8-5ef5-11ec-a9ce-f3b9df488fda/61bc1860703d1.pdf.pdf"],"note":"Original StocksRecap NYSE column, newspaper edition 2021-12-17, preceding market session 2021-12-16, cross-checked against its SPX close. Unchanged issues and exact total are not printed. No WSJ data used in this segment."},"2021-12-17":{"nh":36,"nl":109,"adv":1016,"dec":1464,"unc":null,"total":null,"provenance":["https://ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/00/02/83/15/06242/12-18-2021.pdf"],"note":"Original StocksRecap NYSE column, newspaper edition 2021-12-18, preceding market session 2021-12-17, cross-checked against its SPX close. Unchanged issues and exact total are not printed. No WSJ data used in this segment."}}}}}